International Journal of Social and Management Studies

How To Forecast Islamic Bank Profitability?

Hendrieta Ferieka — 2025-08-28

In governmental and private institutions, meticulous planning is paramount, given its pivotal role in affording a grace period for deliberation spanning years to hours. Forecasting is an indispensable tool in enhancing the efficacy and efficiency of such planning endeavors by projecting future occurrences through the meticulous analysis of historical data and its extrapolation into future contexts. Notably, forecasting provides a solid foundation for informed decision-making within economic planning. This study aims to address the following inquiries: 1) How is the liquidity ratio forecasting model developed using the ARIMA Box-Jenkins method at Bank Syariah Mandiri? 2) Based on the optimal forecasting model, What are the forecasted outcomes of the liquidity ratio utilizing the ARIMA Box-Jenkins method at Bank Syariah Mandiri for the forthcoming year? As a quantitative approach, the study utilizes secondary data from Bank Syariah Mandiri’s financial statements from January 2017 to November 2020, comprising 47 data points. Subsequently, forecasting is conducted for the period December 2020 to November 2021, encompassing one year. The findings reveal that the optimal forecasting model for the liquidity ratio at Bank Syariah Mandiri is the ARIMA (11,1,1) model for the Cash Ratio, projecting a liquidity capability of 130%. This outcome underscores the robust health of Bank Syariah Mandiri’s liquidity position. Moreover, the ARIMA (1,1,8) model for the financing-to-deposit ratio forecasts a liquidity capability of 77.4%, indicative of a healthy liquidity status. Finally, the ARIMA (3,1,3) model for the Loan to Asset Ratio forecasts a liquidity capability of 68.8%, affirming the institution’s sound liquidity position.

The Moderating Role of Enterprise Risk Management on the Influence of Environmental Performance, Firm Size, and Managerial Ownership on Financial Performance: An Empirical Study in Indonesia

Ari Triwibowo — 2025-08-26

This study aims to examine the effects of environmental performance, firm size, and managerial ownership on the financial performance of transportation and logistics companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX), and to analyze the moderating role of Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) in these relationships. A quantitative study with a causal design was employed, utilizing Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA) on panel data with the Fixed Effect Model (FEM).The research was conducted using secondary data obtained from the annual reports and sustainability reports of transportation and logistics companies listed on the IDX, covering the period from January 2021 to December 2024. The sample consisted of 30 transportation and logistics companies that met the sampling criteria. Financial performance was measured using Return on Assets (ROA), environmental performance using the GRI 300 disclosure index, firm size using the natural logarithm of total assets, managerial ownership as the percentage of shares held by management, and ERM using the COSO ERM 2017 disclosure index. Firm size and managerial ownership have a positive and significant effect on financial performance, while environmental performance shows a significant negative effect. ERM significantly strengthens the influence of environmental performance on financial performance but does not significantly moderate the effect of firm size. Furthermore, ERM negatively moderates the effect of managerial ownership on financial performance.

The Effect of Technological Innovation, Sustainable Creativity, and Family Environment on Entrepreneurial Intention Mediated by Self-Efficacy among Undergraduate Students of Academic Year 2021/2022 at Universitas Mercu Buana, Meruya Campus, Jakarta

Eka Sri Winarsih — 2025-08-28

This study aims to analyze the influence of technological innovation, sustainable creativity, and family environment on entrepreneurial intention mediated by self-efficacy among undergraduate students at Universitas Mercu Buana, Meruya Campus. The research design employs a quantitative approach with explanatory methods using Structural Equation Modeling–Partial Least Squares (SEM-PLS). The study population consisted of 18,458 undergraduate students, with a sample of 393 respondents selected using Slovin's formula and purposive sampling. Data were collected through online questionnaires and analyzed using SmartPLS 4.0. The results show that technological innovation, sustainable creativity, and family environment have a positive and significant effect on entrepreneurial intention, both directly and indirectly through self-efficacy. Furthermore, self-efficacy significantly mediates the relationship between independent variables and entrepreneurial intention. These findings support the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) and contribute to achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG 4 (Quality Education), SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth), SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure), and SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production). The study highlights the importance of higher education institutions in strengthening entrepreneurial ecosystems through technology, creativity, and family support.

The Influence of ESG Disclosure, Leverage, and Company Size on Financial Performance at Bank KBMI 3 and 4: The Role of Credit Quality Moderation

Amirullah Amirullah — 2025-08-31

The banking industry is under pressure to integrate sustainability practices while maintaining profitability. This research aims to examine the impact of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Disclosure, Leverage (Debt-to-Equity Ratio/DER), and firm SIZE (SIZE) on financial performance (Return on Assets/ROA) in publicly-owned banks KBMI 3 and 4 during the period of 2019 ~ 2023, as well as the moderating role of Credit Quality (Non-Performing Loan/NPL). Data from five years across eight banks were analyzed using random and fixed-effects regression. The main results indicate that ESG Disclosure and DER have a significant positive direct effect on ROA, while SIZE has a negative effect. NPL has been proven to strengthen the relationship between ESG-ROA and DER-ROA confirming that good credit risk management enhances the benefits of sustainability strategies and funding but does not moderate the influence of company SIZE. This moderation model demonstrates a strong capacity to account for variation in ROA, highlighting the crucial synergy between ESG practices and credit risk management in enhancing bank performance

Psychological Safety and Collaborative Work Culture: The Path to Sustainable Organizational Performance

Nofiyanti Nofiyanti — 2025-08-28

This study aims to analyze the role of psychological safety and collaborative work culture in improving sustainable organizational performance. Using a quantitative survey-based approach, data was collected from employees in various organizational sectors and analyzed using Structural Equation Modeling, Partial Least Square (SEM-PLS). The results indicate that psychological safety positively influences collaborative work culture and directly and indirectly impacts organizational performance through the mediation of collaborative culture. These findings reinforce previous literature emphasizing the importance of leadership and organizational culture in creating a work environment that supports openness, innovation, and long-term commitment. Collaborative work culture has proven to be a strategic pathway in promoting knowledge sharing, effective communication, and employee loyalty, which contribute to organizational sustainability. Additionally, visionary and transformational leadership plays a crucial role in creating psychological safety that encourages active employee participation. Practically, this research underscores that organizations need to integrate psychological safety and collaborative work culture into their human resource management strategies to enhance productivity, innovation, and sustainable competitiveness. Thus, these findings contribute to the development of organizational behavior theory and managerial implications for building adaptive and competitive organizations in the era of disruption

Evaluating Sustainability – Related KPIS in Public Construction Supply Chain : An Green SCOR – AHP- Based Analysis

Nazar Hadiwantoro — 2025-08-26

Public construction projects are increasingly required to integrate sustainability into supply chain performance, particularly in alignment with Sustainable Development Goal 12 on Responsible Consumption and Production. However, existing research often evaluates overall supply chain performance without prioritizing specific sustainability-related Key Performance Indicators (KPIs). This study addresses that gap by applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to assess the relative importance of sustainability indicators within a public construction project in Indonesia.

Four KPIs were selected from the Green SCOR framework—supplier sustainability compliance, percentage of recycled materials used, waste reduction in construction, and energy consumption per unit of construction—based on their prominence in literature and validation through a focus group discussion with experts. Data were collected from 66 stakeholders, including owners, contractors, consultants, and suppliers.

The AHP results indicate that supplier sustainability compliance (0.401) is the most critical KPI, followed by recycled materials usage (0.268) and waste reduction (0.253), while energy consumption (0.077) ranked lowest. These findings reflect stakeholder emphasis on governance and circularity rather than technical efficiency, diverging from studies in developed countries where energy consumption is often prioritized.

This study contributes by refining Green SCOR applications in public construction, demonstrating the use of AHP for KPI prioritization, and providing practical recommendations for policymakers and project managers to embed sustainability into procurement and monitoring systems.

Pengaruh Cybercrime Knowledge dan Cybercrime Security Terhadap Loyalitas Pengguna Internet e-banking

Yohanes Prasetya Husada — 2025-09-26

Tujuan penelitian ini adalah menganalisis hubungan antara pengetahuan kejahatan siber dengan loyalitas nasabah bank dan menguji hubungan antara keamanan kejahatan siber dengan loyalitas nasabah bank. Desain penelitian yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah desain penelitian metode survei kuantitatif. Teknik yang digunakan dalam pemilihan sampel dalam penelitian ini adalah simple random sampling. Pengumpulan data dalam penelitian ini dilakukan secara daring dengan menyebarkan kuesioner melalui platform Google Form dan memperoleh tanggapan langsung dari responden. Jumlah responden yang diteliti sebanyak 621 nasabah Bank di Indonesia yang sering menggunakan Internet banking. Teknik Analisis Data Penelitian ini menggunakan teknik analisis jalur dalam melakukan pengujian data dan hipotesis. Pengujian statistik pada model analisis jalur dapat dilakukan dengan menggunakan metode partial least square. Penelitian ini menggunakan skala likert yang dikategorikan menjadi lima kategori, meliputi: (1) sangat tidak setuju, (2) tidak setuju, (3) netral, (4) setuju dan (5) sangat setuju. Analisis data dalam penelitian ini menggunakan perangkat lunak Smart Partial Least Square (SPLS) versi 3.00. Evaluasi model dalam pengujian dengan SPLS terdiri dari dua tahap yaitu, evaluasi outer model dan inner model. Evaluasi model luar terdiri dari uji pemuatan faktor, Average Variance Extracted, pemuatan silang, alpha Cronbach, dan reliabilitas komposit, sedangkan evaluasi model dalam terdiri dari koefisien determinasi (R2), redundansi tervalidasi silang (Q2), Goodness of Fit (GoF), dan pengujian hipotesis. Setelah melakukan beberapa langkah penelitian dan pengolahan data yang diperlukan dalam penelitian ini, beberapa kesimpulan dapat ditarik, yaitu hasil uji hipotesis korelasi pertama menunjukkan bahwa pengetahuan tentang kejahatan siber berpengaruh signifikan terhadap loyalitas nasabah, dapat juga diartikan bahwa pengetahuan nasabah berpengaruh terhadap loyalitas nasabah. Hasil uji hipotesis korelasi kedua menunjukkan bahwa keamanan kejahatan siber berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap loyalitas nasabah, dapat juga diartikan bahwa keamanan nasabah berpengaruh terhadap loyalitas nasabah.